Bet with confidence every morning.
Without chasing hunches, overthinking picks, or second-guessing yourself.
Confident Picks delivers predictive-model betting odds every morning for major sports leagues — so you can find the best betting opportunities fast.
Why I Built Confident Picks
I’ve spent over a decade building predictive models — first for fantasy sports, then for sports betting. I learned quickly that every market has its own strengths and challenges.
The Early Lessons
My moneyline models could predict winners better than the books — but small edges didn’t always translate into profits.
Totals gave me more control and smoother results, but weren’t always where the best opportunities were.
Handicap betting opened new doors, but carried its own swings and surprises.
What became clear is that no single market is “the answer.” The real key is knowing when and how to use each.
Building a Smarter System
Through years of trial, error, and refinement, I built predictive models that power Confident Picks — delivering daily betting predictions across moneylines, handicaps, and totals. Each forecast is built to highlight where the numbers lean, so you can focus on bets that actually make sense.
The system is designed to:
Spot opportunities across moneyline, totals, and handicap markets
Balance risk by choosing the right type of bet for the situation
Deliver consistent, repeatable predictions that bettors can actually use
What My Betting Looks Like Now
Each morning I check the models, scan across markets, and focus only on the bets that make sense — whether it’s a moneyline, a total, or a handicap. I don’t chase, I don’t guess, and I don’t need hours of research to feel confident.
I created Confident Picks to give other bettors that same structure: a way to make informed decisions backed by data, not vibes. Powered by over 98,000 games across MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL (and growing), this system helps you bet smarter, with clarity and confidence.
WHAT YOU GET
DAILY
Complete Game Predictions
Each morning, the website is updated with data-backed predictions for every game — covering moneylines, handicaps, and totals. No waiting for emails, just log in and everything is there, ready to go.
And it’s not just one number. For totals, you’ll see predictions across a full range of lines (for example, 50+ outcomes per NBA game totals between 220 and 245 points scored).
The same goes for handicaps: multiple spreads, each with its own predicted outcome and confidence rating — giving you the flexibility to find the bets that fit your style.
COVERAGE
More Leagues, More Action
Your membership includes daily updates for the NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and other pro sports leagues.
Current predictions include:
NBA Moneyline, Handicap, & Totals
NFL Moneyline, Handicap, & Totals
NHL Moneyline, Handicap & Totals
SHL Moneyline, Handicap, & Totals
MLB Moneyline, Handicap, & Totals
MLB First Half Totals
MLB No Runs First Inning
MLB Total Hits + Runs + Errors
AAA Minor Baseball (MiLB) Total Runs
NPB: Japan Pro Baseball Total Runs
KBO: Korea Pro Baseball Total Runs
POWER
Advanced Data & Model
Predictions using an engine that is stronger, deeper, and smarter.
For example, the MLB models:
are trained on over 43,000 games
factor in player updates like projected starting pitchers and injuries
account for variables like stadium effects and weather (e.g. temperature, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure)
What you get each day
Each morning you’ll see model predictions on the website for every game, complete with confidence ratings and league coverage in one simple view. Here’s an sample of what you’d see on in the membership section:
My Results
I use the same system every season — and I track the results carefully. Across thousands of bets, my models have proven especially effective at identifying mispriced lines, particularly underdogs and high-confidence totals. The goal isn’t to win every bet. The goal is to win more often than the odds say you should.
Here’s what that looks like in practice:
NHL Moneyline Underdogs
When my NHL model flags an underdog as a strong play, it wins about half the time. That may not sound impressive at first — until you realize sportsbooks price those same teams as if they’ll win closer to four out of ten games. Over time, that gap between expectation and reality is what creates profit.
This season, those NHL underdog picks have produced roughly +15% expected value, meaning that over a large sample, every $1 wagered returns about $0.15 in long-term profit.
NBA Moneyline Underdogs
The NBA model has shown an ability to identify underdogs that are priced too pessimistically by the market. When the model flags an NBA underdog as a strong play, those teams have won about 48% of the time. Sportsbooks, however, price those same teams as if they’ll win closer to 32% of the time.
That gap — nearly 16 percentage points between expectation and reality — is where long-term profit comes from. You don’t need these bets to win most of the time. You need them to win far more often than the odds imply.
MLB Totals
For MLB totals where the model shows a strong signal (above 75%), it went 66% for the 2025 season — compared to sportsbooks pricing those same totals closer to 63%. That small edge adds up. Over the season, it resulted in about +4% expected value.
Across the season, this has resulted in a meaningful positive return, despite fewer than half of the bets winning outright.
Why This Matters
In betting, you don’t need to be “right” all the time. You need to be more right than the odds suggest. Even a few percentage points of advantage can compound into meaningful results over weeks and months. For example, using the MLB totals results above:
Starting bankroll: $200 (I recommend you have extra to ride out loss streaks, ideally at least twenty of your bet wagers)
Bets placed: $10 × 200 games
Ending bankroll: ~$280
Profit: ~$80
And that’s just from one market. With thousands of predictions across leagues, bet types, and confidence levels, Confident Picks gives you multiple ways to apply the system — and uncover your own edges that most bettors never see.
BUILT FOR BETTORS WHO WANT AN EDGE
This membership is for people who:
Want reliable predictions across moneylines, handicaps, and totals
Like to feel prepared and confident before placing a bet
Don’t have time (or interest) to build models every day
Prefer a no-fluff, no-guru, numbers-first approach
Value a repeatable system they can trust all season
Whether you’re new to data or just tired of the noise, Confident Picks gives you a clear, disciplined way to bet smarter every day.
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"The 'Confident Picks' platform does an exceptional job laying out a data-driven betting strategy leveraging AI and predictive modelling. The provided models gives me confidence in being able to get a leg up on the bookies over the long run."
- Juuso V.
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"I would just say that I have found this experience and INFORMATION very enlightening. It has opened my eyes to plays that I wouldn’t have looked at previously because of the sports books lines but with the in depth information in Confident Picks data it opens up doors to quality underdogs. Thank You!"
– Jack H.
COMMON QUESTIONS
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Basketball:
NBA Moneyline
NBA Handicap
NBA Total Points
Football:
NFL Moneyline
NFL Handicap
NFL Total Points
Hockey:
NHL Moneyline
NHL Handicap
NHL Total Goals
SHL Moneyline
SHL Handicap
SHL Total Goals
Baseball:
MLB Moneyline
MLB Handicap
MLB Total Runs
MLB First Half Total Runs
MLB No Runs First Inning
MLB Total Hits + Runs + Errors
International League (MiLB) AAA Minor Baseball Total Runs
Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) Total Runs
Korea Professional Baseball (KBO) Total Runs
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Moneyline, Handicap, and Totals for major sports leagues (ex. MLB, NHL)
Totals for other leagues (ex. AAA, Japan, and Korea pro baseball leagues)
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When people ask about results, the real answer is: the model helps you find spots where the numbers tilt in your favor. Betting will never be perfect — but with a data-driven edge, you can make better long-term decisions.
Here’s an example of how that plays out in practice:
Not all lines are created equal. Totals near the league average (like 8–9 runs in MLB) are the toughest to predict. Lines farther from the average (6.5 or 9.5) tend to be more reliable.
Model predictions = built-in confidence. Every prediction comes with a Model % rating — the higher the number, the stronger the prediction.
Context still matters. If the gap between the model and the sportsbook is unusually wide, it usually means the book is adjusting for info the model doesn’t see yet (like late scratches or injuries).
For example: This past season, for MLB Totals with a model prediction above 75%, I’ve personally placed 200 bets. They’ve hit at 65.51% — compared to the sportsbook’s 63.0% expected rate, resulting in a 4.0% ‘return’.
For NHL underdog moneyline betting, I placed 216 bets. And even though I only won 104 of those bets, I made money and had a positive ‘return’ of 15%.
It may look like “just a few points,” but in betting, that’s the kind of edge that compounds into long-term success.
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Nope. Just open the picks, review the insights, and place your bets with confidence.
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Yes. This is an educational and informational product, not a gambling site or sportsbook. You’re responsible for your own bets.
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If you have any other questions, then just send a note via the contact form — we’re here to help!